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Title The Region's Achilles Heel? (World Economic Forum) 2005.04.28

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World Economic Forum in Singapore 28-29th April 2005 Session Structure: Natural Resource Security The Region's Achilles Heel? Preamble: The former PRC premier, Zhu Rongji once said that the 21st Century is the Asian Century with China and India leading the charge as they mobilize their enormous knowledge workers and intellectual manpower to propel them into developed economies. They together with Russia and Brazil formed BRIC, the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China, and these four economies are expected to be the engines of growth for the world economy in the 21st century. Raw material together with land, finance and people are the precursors to economic activities. China has overtaken Japan as the second biggest consumer of oil and rank close to USA when total fossil fuel is considered (coal, gas and oil). China now is the largest importer of iron ore and coal consuming one third of the world's iron ore and coal. Despite her large indigenous production of coal and iron ore, need for steel and power to fuel its economy, China is now a major net importer of all three commodities, oil, coal and iron ore. Therein lies its vulnerability to the vagaries of the world's major producers. FOB prices of iron ore has risen 70% this year and bituminous coal for power generation increased by over 40%. China's demand for these three commodities have lifted not only the economic performance of commodity producing countries but set off a commodity price boom and also spike ship charter freight rates. Is there a solution to mitigate the demand push on commodity prices? As an energy proponent, I would like to offer some thoughts on securing energy for the three North East Asian economies (China, Korea, Japan) and diffuse the current tension amongst consuming economies in their pursuit for secured energy supply. We in ABAC (APEC Business Advisory Council, the business voice of the 21 Asia Pacific economies) has embarked on a major infrastructure energy project called the Asian Gas Grid. This is a pan Asian major gas sub-sea trunk-line akin to the Trans Siberian Pipeline that united Europe in the 70's and transformed Europe from a coal-based to a gas-based economy. The Asian Gas Grid is a six section pipeline taking gas from the Indonesian East Natuna gas fields for delivery to China. The pipeline routing hugs the continental shelf of the S China Sea with hubs at the end of each gas pipeline section. The hubs act as both gas receiving and dispatch centres where transit states like Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and China can take gas or feed gas into the main trunkline. Thus, the AGG acts as a backbone connectivity allowing feeder and offtake lines to facilitate gas trading in the region. As gas is a benign fuel, it will also allow consuming economies to mitigate the GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions prescribed by the Kyoto Protocol. The company undertaking this visionary project is called Partnership for Equitable Growth (PEG for short) and I am currently the Chairman. Feasibility studies have confirmed the project technical and commercial viability and discussions are now held at the Head of State level to give the final green-light. It is the intention of the promoter to extend the AGG to Japan and Korea and then move westward as a "silk river" through Siberia and onto Europe. Potential questions: 1. How are the economics of the AGG compared to typical LNG deliveries ? The AGG is an infrastructure support system consisting of a pervasive sub-sea gas pipeline. While its costs is estimated at US$8 billion, the amount of gas delivered at 2,000 million cubic feet per day (equivalent to 15 million ton LNG/year) results in a delivered price to China very competitive versus LNG. This is so as the LNG chain consists of building LNG Liquefaction Processing Plants, a fleet of cryogenic tankers and major LNG regassification terminals, the total cost of which far exceeds that for a singl

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