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| Title | The Korean Peninsula and Stability in East Asia | 2004.01.26 |
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FROM:  The Korean Peninsula and Stability in East Asia Nuclear proliferation in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) threatens peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and throughout East Asia, said moderator Patricia Lewis, Director, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), Geneva. At the moment the DPRK is engaged in "a very long game of chicken" with the international community, she suggested. And "there are a hundred scenarios that the future course of events can follow," added David Y. H. Kim, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Daesung Group, Republic of Korea. What scenarios will emerge? Can and will the United States or the international community curb Kim Jong Il's threatened nuclear programme? Lewis succinctly stated the ultimate question on everyone's mind: "Do they have the bomb?" Kim expressed optimism about the situation. "Kim Jong Il will probably be more Qadaffi than Saddam Hussein," he said, reflecting what he characterized as an "optimistic sentiment among Korean businessmen." Kim said that any bomb that the DPRK might develop would be "symbolic" and never used. Moreover, he said it might not be such a bad thing for the DPRK to expend their few resources on a nuclear programme because "that makes them weaker." In contrast, Jim A. Leach, Congressman from Iowa (Republican), USA, expressed little confidence in the ability of the international community to come to a solution with the DPRK, principally because the North Korean government had not proven itself to be a rational actor. "If there's ever been a brainwashed society in modern history," said Leach, "it's more likely to be North Korea than any other." He said that President Bush's advisers viewed the previous president's more friendly policy as "exceptionally na?ve" at first. Nonetheless, "discussions must occur even if they don't lead to dramatic results." Indeed, "stark decision-making has to be avoided." Fortunately, "one of the few things [the North Koreans] have been wise about" is that they have not attempted a nuclear test. "The way we've handled North Korea has been a series of mistakes," argued Mohamed M. ElBaradei, Director-General, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. As a result, the DPRK has had seven years of unchecked time to develop nuclear weapons, and they "almost certainly" have them by now. In ElBaradei's assessment, the DPRK pushed forward its nuclear programme for two reasons. First, the North Korean government is looking for a way to leverage aid in an attempt to prop up their dismal economy. Second, the DPRK is seeking security assurances: "President Clinton said 'It's the economy, stupid;' I say 'It's the security, stupid.'" In dealing with the DPRK, "we need to make them understand that nuclear blackmail does not pay," ElBaradei concluded. But we should be generous with them "if they join the fold" and truly commit themselves to non-proliferation. Leach added that the North Koreans had not asked for economic assistance, which was just as well because "we won't engage in that type of blackmail." Drawing on his recent experience with the North Koreans as a UN envoy, Maurice F. Strong, President, University for Peace and Special Adviser to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, New York, predicted: "The crunch will come this year…there is a huge risk in this situation." Strong reported: "Energy is at the heart of North Korean issues, including humanitarian issues," and said that natural gas from Russia might be a possible long-term solution. Strong also said that a peace treaty is needed to replace the armistice that marked the cessation of hostilities 50 years ago. During the discussion, one participant objected strongly to Kim's voiced optimism, arguing instead that North Korea would serve as an example for other would-be nuclear state. Kim responded that he also had c |
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| NO | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | The Korean Peninsula and Stability ... | 2004.01.26 |
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